Carbon Capture Market Size

• $2bn market, mostly avoidance credit
• But seeing more aforestation that is like $10-$15/credit
• Then seeing biochar growing ($30-$40)
  • Still a bio approach, can be added into the ground as a fertilizer
  • Sawmills produce a lot of input materials for this
• Technical carbon capture
  • BECCS: 140m tons, half of it is from paper energy, other is bioenergy plant
    • Expensive; only first transactions of hundreds of thousands of tons coming up. The only customer is Microsoft. They do good due diligence
    • $200/ton is the sales price. usually $80-90/ton to produce, then transport + storage costs
    • Smaller plant in Norway $340/ton
  • DAC is $600-$700 target, actual cost is more like $1000 today
    • Iceland has a first plant running now because they have optimum conditions. They can store carbon directly
    • People still looking at DAC because the biomass is not enough if you want to do gigatons. In Europe, maybe can get half of the needs from biomass (140m tons)
    • This is why are people buying DAC credits and helping the companies go further
    • MSFT wants to be carbon neutral by 2030, but don’t think they’d want to buy it all with technical DAC
• Shell is very active in BECCS. Siemens is more interested in the chemicals to produce to combine with carbon to create valuable downstream products
• DAC traditionally has been only startups, but seeing now industrial players move in on BECCS side. Don’t see large industrial players moving into DAC
• Even if MSFT promised to buy a large amount, it would be one project, wouldn’t be enough for a large industrial to come in